Awww C'mon.

It’s 2.5 (that’s 2 and a half, for you lay-jerks) weeks away from NFL preseason.  The football meat-ia machine is slowly building up speed, accelerating to that proverbial 88 mph when the regular season starts.  After marveling at the World Cup, and 75% of sports announcers pretending to care about baseball, training camps are now mere DAYS away. Journalists are starting to sum up everything they’ve been sparingly doling out since the Saints solidified themselves in history; taking down one of the game’s most respected quarterbacks while simultaneously proving that it’s own steps aside for no-one.  On the surface, it’s all the same from team to team, they just choose one of 3-4 issues surrounding a team and approach it from slightly different angles.  However, with an abundance of data, patterns and themes start to emerge.  Luckily, I have absorbed this data, and am ready for a major prediction.

THE CHICAGO BEARS WILL WIN THE NFC WILDCARD SPOT.

A bold statement.  Allow me to explain in excruciating detail.

It’s been now 4 full seasons since the Bears’ trip to the superbowl in the 06-07 season.  07-08 was attributed to the infamous “Super-bowl hangover.”  Here’s a statistic that provides insight as to how hung-over they actually were.  Robbie Gould scored exactly as many points(126) as the next 4 leading scorers: Devin Hester (48, 42 of which were on returns),  Bernard Berrian (30), Desmond Clark (24), and Cedric Benson (24) .  The 08-09 was attributed to Hester switching to WR, lack of sacks killing the Cover-2, and Safety switches.  09-10 to Cutler and his damn interceptions, among many other things of which we’ll get to.  All these seasons were not necessarily terrible (7-9, 9-7, 9-7 respectively), but they were not worthy of a playoff birth.

As such, the Bears have missed the playoffs three years in a row.   Not only that, but they’ve been told so.  Repeatedly.  ”Failure” is a word regularly brought up in interviews.  Failure to run, failure to pass rush, failure to meet expectations.  They now have something to prove.  Every interview done with the bears has at least one mention of “we’re a young team, we’ve got something to prove.”  While this is generally the bread and butter of the organization; the perceived notion that Lovie could be gone after this season has put a fire under their butts.  Keep that in mind: every team wants ton win and go to the superbowl, but the Bears have a deadline.  If they don’t go, Lovie doesn’t stay, and they’ve barely missed the past 2 seasons.  This competitive edge is what will make the difference in a lot of areas.

Now, there’s Mike “my god are you really saying my name AGAIN” Martz.  A hire that’s generated a ton of buzz.  In the past he throws it a lot, requires long pass plays that stress the offensive line (another perceived weak point), and supposedly “doesn’t care” about interceptions.  This is because his QBs take 7-step drops (most steps taken are usually 5, and in an NFL with quicker and quicker defenses this is a big deal), they throw it to where a receiver SHOULD BE, and not where they ARE, and they do so more often.  Every person interviewed about his system says that while it takes a long time to learn the system, that there’s more to it than that.  Every player must buy in to the system. This is where the Bears will succeed.  Their offense is largely a young team.  You have Cutler who hasn’t led success in his career, literally ever [11-35 in college, 24-26 in the Pros], and wants to buy into something he believes can get him that win.  You also have Seven 1-3 year rookie WR’s that are all looking to break out.  Finally, you’ve got other weapons like Matt Forte, Chester Taylor, and Greg Olsen (who Martz loves).    All this points to an offense that is ready to accept coaching as given, and run it to the best of their ability.

Now lets take a look at some specifics.

The Offensive Line.  The Bears made an offseason hire of Mike Tice to coach the line, which took the responsibilities off of Rod Marinelli, who got promoted to Defensive Coordinator.  However, Rod was rumored to be pretty much splitting the job with Lovie although Lovie was calling the plays.  Mike Tice has a proven track record of significantly improving Offensive Lines.  Also, not to bore you with lots of names, but last year the players on OL were all playing positions they weren’t familiar.  Now, with the firing of Orlando Pace, the line gets back to where it should be in terms of players at their natural positions.  You also have healthy competition at Left Guard, and that’s always a good thing.  Not only will the line be able to protect Cutler due to Tice’s expertise, but they should also be better in theory on the run.

The Wide Receivers don’t get a lot of credit.  However, I can tell you that this is to their advantage.  Devin Hester has been working out with Isaac Bruce, a former WR in the Mike Martz system, f0r most of the summer to get acquainted with the system and work on skills.   One of Hester’s weaknesses was route running, and this was definitely worked on in these sessions.  Martz has raved about Johnny Knox, for good reason.  That dude is just flat out fast, and has some great hands and that flair for the dramatic.  You have big, dependable guys in Earl Bennet and Devin Aromashodu who both had huge seasons last year.  When you factor in a few more reserves you’ve got yourself a deep, albeit largely unproven, core of receivers.  This is where youth will play a big factor, as Martz will have putty in his hands.

The run game.  Lovie has repeatedly, repeatedly said that the Bears will not stop running the ball.  They play in an open stadium, in Chicago.  They know they can’t throw the ball all the time, and so they will not forget the run.  This was made evident by the hire of Chester Taylor, which I honestly believe to be the best offseason move they made the entire year.  Chester Taylor made it possible for Adrian Petersen to be Adrian Petersen.  The man behind the legend.  This, I feel, will be the case for Matt Forte.  While I don’t want to compare Forte to AP because that would be silly, I will say that the two running in tandem will be a sight to see.  Taylor is fast as hell and can catch, and Forte can catch even better.  The two of them will combine for some major yards, I garuntee it.

The Bears offense has really only one way to go, and that is up.  However, from the looks of things, it is going to go way, way up.  Journalists seem to agree on this point, although they wont hesitate to dissect the many problems that plagued the Bears last season.  The defense, however, is a different story.

Not many have good things to say on the Bears defense, and for good reason.  They have not had a respectable defense since their superbowl year.  However, it looks like that will change.

The Bears signed Julius Peppers.  I know you know that, but I’m being thorough.  Peppers has a ridiculous amount of sacks, and will be an immediate threat.  The Bears waved Alex brown (6.5 sacks last season) in favor of Mark Anderson, who had 12 in his rookie season.  Nobody thinks Anderson is capable of that again, with the exception that Peppers will draw double teams, leaving Anderson to clean up unabated.   I can’t say either way what will happen in that regard, except the two DE’s should combine for a satisfying amount of sacks.  The big factor here that I think people are forgetting about is a healthy Tommie Harris.  Harris, albeit a little dumb in the head, is in the first healthy off-season in recent years. From all reports I’ve read it is paying off.  Now you’ve got three rushing threats.  All of a sudden, QB’s can’t throw the ball when they want to.  This is the basis of the Cover-2 Defense that Lovie covets, and why the defense is going to be formidable.

When the QB is forcing his throws to avoid sacks, he is doing so when receivers aren’t necessarily in position, or they at least aren’t too far past our secondary.  This is crucial to our secondary, which I will admit is mediocre.  Charles Tillman is getting older, Zach Bowman just isn’t that good, and the play of the safeties has been questionable at best.  While I am a big Danieal Manning fan (best Manning in the league!),  he did not play like I know he can last season.  This is because he is not Troy Polamalu.  He is a role player in the Cover-2.  All of a sudden, when the QB is throwing sooner than expected, the secondary has less time to get burned and thus are playing markedly better despite never having increased their skills.  Again, this is huge.

Lets not forget that Urlacher is back, baby.  Yes, he is 32.  Yes he has declined in recent years.  But his leadership is crucial, and there just isn’t anyone to take that spot yet.  With him and Briggs splitting the “i have to own this defense” responsibilities, and with nobody needing to blitz because we’ve got a great defensive line, all of a sudden it’s like you’ve gained 2 players on the field.  This, added with Urlacher’s knowledge of the game, will go a long way towards improving a defense that was in desperate need of improving.

*phew*.  We are done with that.  I made a lot of assumptions in my descriptions that the Bears will improve rather than degrade in areas where there might not be sufficient proof to support that theory.  This is where I think about the “something to prove” factor.  The Bears are working hard, real hard, with the hunger for the post season.  They have a chip on their shoulder, and paired with low expectations can be a big advantage.

This advantage comes directly into play when considering their place in the NFC-North and the NFC as a whole.  I don’t think it’s any secret that the NFC-North is the best in the NFC right now.  You’ve got the Packers and the Vikings, who were just unreasonably good last year.  Lets, for the moment, assume Farve comes back.  The Bears have proven they can beat the Vikings by throwing past their secondary, which the Vikings did almost nothing to improve in the off season.  With a high-octane passing attack, I don’t see the Vikings beating the Bears next year, and you can take that to the bank.  The Packers are my pick to win the division (as much as that pains me) due to their ridiculous defense, their pro-bowl quarterback, Ryan Grant, and the Driver/Jennings combo that simply gets the job done.

Then you look at the rest of the NFC and pick your division winners and runner ups.  Mine are the NY Giants, the San Fran 49ers, and the Saints.  Your runners up would be The Bears, the Falcons, the Cardinals, and the Cowboys.  Lets assume I got this all right.  With an easy schedule, the Bears will have a chance at a great record.  The Falcons I definitely don’t have faith in for anything above a 9-7 season.  The Cardinals lost both Kurt Warner and Bouldin.  The only team I’d be concerned about, but mostly out of respect, is the Dallas Cowboys.  However they do have Dez Bryant, who I think will kill it.  However, none of these teams did much to immediately bolster themselves while the Bears were busy trading in Free Agency in lei of draft picks.  Now they’ve got a full team with depth (except at saftey) that can really really play.  I don’t know, if I were you, I’d put money on the Bears.  Maybe I’ll throw in my superbowl bet NOW so i’m rich come january.  Just a thought.

So there you have it.  A comprehensive prediction on football.

Hello, I’m Paul.  I like sports, and I like talking about them.  I love a good morning tailgate, and can’t get enough of adverse weather football.  I’ll watch most sports for at least a little while.  Never a player of most of the sports I follow, I am no stranger to competition and physical play.  I yell at the TV/players like they can hear me, but they of course cannot.  I can read lips to a moderate degree and enjoy reading angry players’ mouths.

Most of all I love the competition and ideology behind a game.  It’s a group of people (or a single person) exercising teamwork and physical discipline to win a matchup while not breaking the rules.   Most traditional sports preach good sportsmanship, which I fully endorse.  The respect for others and for the game is admirable, but the physical lengths some players will go to while miraculously keeping injuries fairly low is also impressive.

I’ve heard sports programming called a reality TV show before, and I will not disagree.  In some degree, It definitely is.  But even if coverage sometimes does focus a little heavily on inner-sport drama,  the constant battle with both teams clearly trying their hardest is something that can’t really be controlled.  Barring any tampering, of course.  Anything can happen on the field, and there is a certain historic feel to it.

In short, that’s some of what I like about sports.  I’ll write about that, and things like why I’m not all that broken up about Greg Oden sustaining a fracture.

For the honor and the glory,

-Paul